diff --git a/configs/ems-config.yaml b/configs/ems-config.yaml
index bb14f16..f53a0ff 100644
--- a/configs/ems-config.yaml
+++ b/configs/ems-config.yaml
@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ forecast:
   fetch_interval: "4h"      # re-fetch during the day (free tier: 12 req/day → 3 fetches)
   fetch_window_start: "07:00"
   fetch_window_end: "19:00"
-  base_load_w: 1000         # typical house consumption used for surplus estimate (W)
+  base_load_w: 450          # steady-state house consumption (W) — spikes from kettle/dishwasher are hourly averages and negligible
   min_surplus_w: 1800       # min export surplus to trigger wallbox — matches wallbox_a threshold
 
 # EMS operational settings